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Craig School of Business

San Joaquin Valley Survey of Business Conditions

About the Survey

On the first business day of every month, the San Joaquin Valley Survey of Business Conditions is released by the Craig School of Business at California State University, Fresno.

Dr. Ernest Goss, a Research Associate of the Craig School of Business surveys supply managers using the same methodology used for The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), formerly the National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM).

The National Association of Purchasing Management began in 1931 to formally survey its membership to gauge business conditions.

The overall index ranges between 0 percent and 100 percent. An index number greater than 50 percent indicates an expansionary economy, and an index under 50 percent forecasts a sluggish economy, for the next three to six months.

The counties included in the survey are: San Joaquin, Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Stanislaus, and Tulare.

Purpose of Survey

The San Joaquin Valley Survey of Business Conditions utilizes the methodology established by the Purchasing Management Index (PMI) (sometimes referred to as the ISM index).

Indices are reported for the overall economy, new orders, production, inventories, employment, delivery lead time, prices and confidence. The overall PMI is a composite index based on new orders, production, delivery lead time, inventories and employment. An index above 50.0% indicates expansion while an index below 50.0% indicates contraction.

The indices are calculated from surveys of purchasing managers in the California's San Joaquin Valley region. The San Joaquin Valley includes the following nine counties: San Joaquin, Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Stanislaus, and Tulare.

The PMI has been used by economists and government officials to forecast the future state of the economy. It provides an early indication of where the economy is headed in the next three to six months.

Ernest Goss, Research Associate for the Craig School of Business

Prof. Ernie GossErnest Goss is currently the Jack MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University. He received his Ph.D. in Economics
from The University of Tennessee in 1983 and is a former faculty research fellow at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. He was a
visiting scholar with the Congressional Budget Office for 2003-04 and is a research fellow at the Theodore Roosevelt Institute.

He has published over eighty research studies focusing primarily on economic forecasting and on the statistical analysis of business and
economic data. His research paper entitled, "The Internet's Contribution
to U.S. Productivity Growth," received the National Association of
Business Economics Edmund A. Mennis Contributed Papers Award for 2001.

His book, Changing Attitudes toward Economic Reform during the Yeltsin
Era was published by Praeger Press in 2003 and his book Governing
Fortune: Casinos in America will be published by the University of
Michigan Press in the first quarter of 2007.

He is a member of the Editorial Board of The Review of Regional
Studies and editor of Economic Trends, an economics newsletter published three times per year. He is the past president of the Omaha Association of Business Economics, and President of the Nebraska Purchasing Management Association.

Goss produces a monthly business conditions index for the nine state
Mid-American region and the three state Mountain region.  He and Bill
McQuillan, CEO of City National Bank, initiated a survey of bank CEOs in
rural portions of 8 states. Results from the three surveys are cited
each month in approximately 100 newspapers. Newspaper citations have
included the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Investors Business
Daily, The Christian Science Monitor, Chicago Sun Times and other
national and regional newspapers and magazines. Each month 75-100 radio stations carry his Regional Economic Report.

For more information or to schedule an interview with Dr. Goss please call 559.278.2352.

To participate in the survey please sign up here.

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